[LUM#12] The Challenge of Adaptation

[LUM Magazine] - Published on June 11, 2020 in Science and Society

Keeping the rise in temperature below the 2-degree threshold—or even 1.5 degrees!—is the goal of the Paris Agreement, ratified by more than 200 countries in 2015. If this goal is not met, 90% of humanity will be affected by a sharp decline in agricultural production and fisheries, according to an international study published in *Science Advances*.

“1.5 degrees—no scientist believes in that anymore! We’ll be very lucky if we even stay under 2 degrees! In the past, the collapse of societies has almost always been the result of a failure to adapt. ” According to David Mouillot, a researcher at the Montpellier Laboratory for Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation, and Conservation (MARBEC), “it is urgent that the international community adapt.” Because if that fateful 2-degree threshold were to be crossed, 90% of the world’s population would face significant losses in productivity in the fishing and agricultural sectors.

90% of the world's population affected

This figure comes from an international study conducted by MARBEC and laboratories in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The economy, employment, and food supply are the three indicators used to measure countries’ dependence on their agriculture and fisheries: “how many jobs it provides, what percentage of GDP it accounts for , or what share of the daily food supply it represents,” explains David Mouillot.

According to various models of future climate, “the regions most affected are Southeast Asia and Africa. New Zealand’s agriculture will be severely impacted; in Indonesia, it will be the fishing industry; and Madagascar and Ethiopia are at risk of experiencing terrible famines. ” And while scientists had hoped that compensatory effects between agriculture and fisheries would help limit the damage, the study’s findings unfortunately do not support this view.

Only a few winners

Other countries—including major CO2 emitters—are also among the losers. The United States risks seeing its wheat and corn production, as well as its fishing industry, severely slowed down. The same goes for Saudi Arabia, India, China… “What’s completely absurd is that they’re among the losers but aren’t making any effort to reduce their CO2 emissions,” the researcher says indignantly.

However, the house isn’t burning at the same rate for everyone; thus, 3% of the population could benefit from productivity gains by 2100. Among these big winners are Canada, Japan, Russia, Scandinavia, and England.“ If resources become scarcer, and if wheat yields decline in the United States or Ukraine, it will sell for a higher price. Canadians are adapting and starting to grow it themselves.”

Adapt to Survive

Compliance with the Paris Agreement would, however, limit these productivity losses for most countries—including the most vulnerable ones—reducing them from -25% to -5% for agriculture and from -60% to -15% for fisheries. “We have ten years left—time is flying by, and we’re already behind on the Paris Agreement! In any case, we’ll have to adopt adaptation strategies and change our consumption patterns,” warns the biologist.
Choose crops that are more heat-resistant, replace corn with wheat, and eat new species of fish. “You’ll have to get ready to serve your guests jellyfish, octopus, or lionfish… Adaptation means a cultural shift in that sense, too!”

Keywords: Agriculture, Climate, Economy, Environment, LUM#12, LUM Magazine, Company