“Will you buy fewer plastic bottles?” A simple question can change our behavior
Are you planning to buy fewer plastic water bottles in the future? Maybe not, but now that you’ve been asked the question, you’re bound to think about it. This psychological effect could be used to encourage people to reduce their plastic consumption.
Bing Bai, University of Montpellier; Laurie Balbo, Grenoble School of Management (GEM) and Marie-Christine Lichtlé, University of Montpellier
With a growth rate of 73% over the past decade, the bottled water market is one of the fastest-growing markets worldwide. Unfortunately, this consumption has harmful environmental consequences: increased plastic waste, greenhouse gas emissions linked to the production, transport, and distribution of bottles, and the overexploitation of water resources to produce bottled water. These impacts only exacerbate the current ecological crisis. In light of this situation, reducing our dependence on bottled water is emerging as a crucial environmental issue.
In 2020, a study by Futerra and OnePulse revealed that 80% of respondents said they were willing to change their habits to combat climate change, and 50% of them planned to reduce their use of plastic. However, little research has been conducted on communication strategies that could help reduce the consumption of bottled water.
Self-fulfilling prophecies: a question to foster change
Our research explores the impact of what we call self-fulfilling prophecies on reducing the purchase of bottled water in the United States, based on a sample of 269 people. Self-fulfilling prophecies refer to a psychological phenomenon whereby simply asking individuals questions about their future behaviors (for example: “Will you recycle your packaging?”) can increase the likelihood that they will adopt those behaviors. Our study analyzes this process and examines how individual factors can modulate its effects.
Researchers have shown that the effects of self-fulfilling prophecies can be explained by the theory of cognitive dissonance. When a person is asked to predict their future behavior, they may become aware of a discrepancy between their normative beliefs (what they consider socially desirable or acceptable) and their actual behavior. This inconsistency creates dissonance—that is, a contradiction—which often motivates individuals to modify their actions to better align them with their values.
Feeling guilty in advance about an action that goes against our values
In our study, we demonstrate the emotional mechanism through which the demand for self-fulfilling prophecy influences pro-environmental behaviors, via anticipated guilt. In his book titled A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, American social psychologist Leon Festinger describes dissonance as a state characterized by psychological discomfort, thereby provoking aversion and a motivation to change behavior. However, he does not explicitly specify the nature of this discomfort. Subsequent theorists of dissonance have identified guilt as an emotion caused by dissonance in certain situations.
We explored this idea by focusing specifically on guilt, hypothesizing that people anticipate this feeling when they consider not engaging in environmentally friendly behavior. This is particularly true when such behavior aligns with their normative beliefs (that is, the social or cultural expectations one is expected to follow in certain situations). Thus, this anticipation of guilt leads people to comply with requests for behavior aligned with eco-friendly values, in order to avoid this negative feeling.
To test this hypothesis, we measured guilt levels among participants exposed to an advertisement containing a predictive question designed to reduce their purchases of bottled water. These participants felt more guilt in advance than those in the control group, who were exposed to an advertisement without a predictive question. This anticipated guilt, in turn, reduced their intention to buy bottled water.
Effects that vary from person to person
We explored two factors that may influence the effectiveness of the self-fulfilling prophecy technique: normative beliefs and the motivations that drive people to take action.
Previous research has highlighted the importance of normative beliefs. Individuals who strongly hold these beliefs are more likely to predict that they will adopt behaviors consistent with them and to actually carry them out. We examined how different types of norms influence intentions. Indeed, some norms are descriptive (what most people do), others are injunctive (what we think is expected of us), and finally, some are personal (our own internal moral standards).
The results show that these three types of norms directly influence the sense of anticipated guilt. Participants believe that most people buy fewer bottles, that doing so is socially expected, and that it aligns with their personal beliefs. The stronger these norms are, the greater the anticipated guilt in the event of non-compliance. However, we observed no interaction between the norms and the prediction question. This suggests that a prediction question does not make normative beliefs more salient at the time of prediction, and that they therefore do not guide participants in their decision-making.
In addition, we studied approach motivation—that is, the desire to engage in actions that provide positive experiences or rewards. Thus, we can measure a score known as BAS (for Behavioral Approach System): individuals with the highest scores are more likely to try to achieve their goals, whether concrete (e.g., reaching for or grabbing an object) or more abstract (e.g., altruism or productivity). These individuals exert greater effort to achieve goals that bring them pleasure, thereby narrowing the gap between the goals they have set for themselves and what they actually do.
Those most prone to cognitive dissonance are the ones who are least likely to meet their goals
Contrary to our hypothesis, individuals with low sensitivity to rewards and a low drive to seek positive experiences experience more guilt than those with high scores. Our interpretation is that although individuals who score low on this test are less motivated to act to achieve their goals, they become all the more aware of the gap between their current behaviors and their personal standards when asked about it. This heightened awareness of the mismatch between their actions and their standards, even in the absence of strong motivation, generates a stronger sense of anticipated guilt. Consequently, although they have less impulse to act, this anticipation of guilt increases their intention to reduce their consumption of plastic bottles.
Conversely, individuals with high scores seem inherently inclined to align their actions with their standards, which reduces their cognitive dissonance. They appear to take proactive steps to bridge the gap between their behavior and their goals, thereby reducing anticipated guilt.
Using self-fulfilling prophecies in environmental campaigns
The findings of our study offer new avenues for environmental awareness campaigns. Government agencies and NGOs can easily incorporate predictive insights into their communications to encourage eco-friendly behaviors.
Unlike previous findings, our results did not reveal an effect of normative beliefs on the effectiveness of self-fulfilling prophecies. Had such an effect been observed, we would have found that the more strongly participants adhered to normative beliefs, the more their behavior would have been influenced by self-fulfilling prophecies, particularly by adjusting their actions to align with these norms. However, the literature shows that personal norms influence how individuals form their intentions and adopt environmentally friendly behaviors. We therefore recommend incorporating personal norms into campaigns that use self-fulfilling prophecies, for example by creating messages that highlight the need for pro-environmental actions and the consequences of inaction.
It should also be noted that this study focuses on behavioral intentions. Previous research, however, has demonstrated the effects of self-fulfilling prophecies on actual (rather than anticipated) behaviors that are repeated over time. For example, some studies have documented improvements in recycling over four-week periods following the intervention, or an increase in gym attendance over periods of up to six months after the prediction. These various findings show that a simple question, by tapping into an emotional trigger, can truly motivate the public to change their habits.
Bing Bai, PhD candidate in Marketing at the University of Montpellier – Teaching Assistant at EDHEC Business School, University of Montpellier; Laurie Balbo, Associate Professor of Marketing _ Director of the MSc Marketing and MSc Digital Marketing & Data Analytics Programs, Grenoble École de Management (GEM) and Marie-Christine Lichtlé, Full Professor, University of Montpellier
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