[LUM#2] Homo Mediterraneus: Doomed to Evolution

[LUM Magazine] - Published on April 12, 2016 in Science and Society

And what about people? What impact will this have on populations, societies, and economies? A closer look at a Mediterranean region on the brink of turmoil.

“Nothing is more difficult than painting an accurate picture of the future of human societies,” explains Eric Servat, director of the Research Environmental Research Observatory (OSU OREME). “But what do we know with a reasonable degree of certainty? First, the Mediterranean climate will become increasingly unstable.”“This virtually closed environment, where we expect an increase of 2 to 4 degrees in average temperature by 2100, behaves like a pressure cooker when heated.” The result: severe weather instability is expected throughout the region. And severe flooding: it already accounts for one-third of natural disasters and more than half of the deaths caused by these disasters.

Water: A Major Concern

Longer dry spells and wetter winters that will not be enough to offset them: overall, the annual precipitation deficit in the Mediterranean is projected to range from 5% to 30%. This is a disaster for many regions along the southern coast and in the Middle East, which are already below the critical threshold for “water stress.” The situation is exacerbated by population growth and concentration…

“By the middle of this century, two-thirds of humanity will be living in coastal areas, in the broadest sense of the term. This will bring increased pressure on local resources and highly concentrated pollution,” continues Eric Servat. These are populations that will need to be fed… Yet today, 70% of the freshwater available on our planet is used for agriculture. “In a context of changing and degraded water resources, these demographic shifts require us to envision a form of agriculture adapted to the future.”

Growing inequalities

With sea levels rising at an accelerating rate, the risk of coastal flooding is increasing along the French coast—where sea levels are projected to rise by 26 to 55 centimeters by 2100—threatening both people and infrastructure. We can therefore expect climate refugees in our part of the world. But this risk primarily affects the southern coast. Uneven development leads to uneven vulnerability: not all human societies are threatened to the same degree.

In the north, existing infrastructure and resources should make adaptation possible. Vineyards struggling to survive, chestnut groves on the verge of disappearing? Scientists believe this is to be expected. But“climate change also presents new opportunities, ” notes Patrice Garin, a researcher at the“Water Management, Stakeholders, and Uses”laboratory: “This will be the case in our mid-latitudes, where we may see orange and lemon trees flourish.” In the South, however, where severe droughts are already rampant, some populations will have to leave lands that can no longer sustain them.

Promoting agricultural diversity

And when agricultural production is threatened in the Mediterranean,“it is the cradle of agriculture that is affected,” says Yildiz Aumeeruddy-Thomas, a researcher at the Center for Functional and Evolutionary Ecology. “The wild ancestors of the grains and legumes that feed humanity today are found here,” she explains. This agrodiversity is a major pillar of global food security.“Today’s crops are often monoclonal: a single individual, replicated thousands of times.” These are highly specialized varieties, created in laboratories for their productive capacity. But they are also“environmental aberrations,” according to the ethnobiologist…

“By planting monocultures, we lose not only genetic resources but also valuable know-how. Instead, we should promote heirloom varieties—which are hardier and better adapted to their environment—and foster the biodiversity associated with agroecosystems to enhance their ability to adapt.” Focusing on food security rather than overproduction for export is also a guarantee of food quality that pays off.“Conventional agriculture requires the massive use of chemicals, which come at a huge cost to public health—a factor that must be taken into account in the future when developing new agricultural models.”

The Cost of Inaction

While disruptions seem inevitable, their scale will depend on the ability of public policies to manage the crisis. For Patrice Garin,“we need to consider alternative ways of sharing the land, developing and using space, and approaching urbanization.” He advocates for a societal model that is“more frugal and more environmentally friendly.” He also calls for the involvement of civil society—and scientists in particular—to support decision-makers as they explore the range of possibilities.

Whatever strategies are adopted, they will come at a cost. But“doing nothing costs even more,” points out Sophie Thoyer, a professor of agricultural and environmental economics and a researcher at the Lameta laboratory, now known as CEEM.“According to some studies, it is estimated that the cost of inaction increases by 40% every 10 years. Not to mention the irreversible, incalculable effects: the disappearance of the ice cap, for example.”

This observation comes against a backdrop of limited political will. Has Europe truly grasped the urgency ofthe situation? “The Common Agricultural Policy has recently become more environmentally friendly. But the measures taken are very timid given the stakes and will have only a very limited impact on the environment.” And what about the non-binding agreement signed at the recent COP21? For Sophie Thoyer,“it has incremental value. Its success lies in having secured a consensus among these 195 countries and reignited momentum, with the goal of securing increasingly ambitious commitments.” A gradual approach that could bear fruit. But how long will it take?

Keywords: Climate change, Climate, LUM#2, LUM Magazine