The Ocean and Climate: What Are the Options for the Future? A Look at Research in France
In a few days, the third United Nations Ocean Conference (UNOC 3) will be held in Nice, France (Alpes-Maritimes). It will bring together leaders, policymakers, scientists, and stakeholders from around the world with the goal of “accelerating action and mobilizing all actors to conserve and sustainably use the ocean,” potentially resulting in a “Nice Agreement” that would consist of a political declaration negotiated at the UN and voluntary commitments—at least, that is the goal of the organizers, France and Costa Rica.
Scientific information is essential to support these decisions—what is the current state of research worldwide and in France regarding ways to harness the solutions the ocean can offer in the face of the climate crisis?
Devi Veytia, École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL; Adrien Comte, French National Research Institute for Development (IRD); Frédérique Viard, University of Montpellier; Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Sorbonne University; Laurent Bopp, École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL; Marie Bonnin, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD) and Yunne Shin, French National Research Institute for Development (IRD)
France plays a key role in advancing toward the goal of conserving and sustainably using the ocean, since, with the world’s second-largest exclusive economic zone, it holds a significant amount of decision-making power regarding the use of ocean resources.
However, fulfilling such a necessary and ambitious mandate to accelerate and mobilize action will not be easy. The UNOC 3 discussions will take place against a backdrop in which the ocean is facing challenges unprecedented in human history, particularly due to the increasingly significant impacts of climate change.
These effects are becoming increasingly pronounced in all regions of the world, from the surface to the deepest waters of the Southern Ocean around the Antarctic continent , to densely populated coastal areas where climate-related risks are mounting, particularly affecting fisheries.
Ocean-based solutions to mitigate climate change (for example, by using marine renewable energy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions) and adapt to its impacts (for example, by building seawalls) are essential.
To optimize their implementation, a comprehensive and objective synthesis of the scientific data is essential. Indeed, an incomplete assessment of the available evidence could lead to biased conclusions, highlighting certain options as particularly suitable while overlooking their side effects or critical gaps in our understanding.
Amid this maelstrom of challenges, what is France’s contribution to the research and implementation of ocean-based solutions?
Based on an analysis of 45,000 articles published between 1934 and 2023, we show that French researchers account for a significant share of global scientific research on adaptation options, but that there are still many avenues for action.
For example, French scientific expertise could be harnessed to support research on adaptation strategies for small island developing states, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Furthermore, research on mitigation options—such as in the field of marine renewable energy—should be expanded.
What are ocean-based options?
The ocean covers 70% of the Earth's surface and has absorbed 30% of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions. Yet, until recently, it was overlooked in the fight against climate change.
Today, many ocean-based options are emerging in discussions among scientists, policymakers, and citizens. These “ocean-based options” refer to actions that:
- mitigate climate change and its effects by using ocean and coastal ecosystems to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions; examples include initiatives that use the ocean to generate renewable energy;
- support the adaptation of coastal communities and ecosystems to the ever-increasing impacts of climate change; these options include fisheries management and ecosystem restoration, as well as the construction of infrastructure to protect coastlines from flooding.
Analyzing Research Using AI
One of the key roles of science is to provide an unbiased synthesis of scientific data to inform decision-making. However, the explosion in the number of scientific publications makes it increasingly difficult—if not impossible—to conduct such assessments comprehensively.
This is where artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models come into play; they have already achieved remarkable success, from chatbots to internet search algorithms.
In a research project currently under evaluation, we have extended these new applications of AI to the science-policy interface, using a large language model to analyze France’s contribution to the research landscape on ocean-based solutions. Using this model, we classified approximately 45,000 scientific articles dedicated to ocean-based solutions.
Globally, we observe that research is unevenly distributed, as 80% of the articles focus on mitigation options. Researchers affiliated with France play an important role in this regard, as they are among the leading contributors to research on adaptation options.
This priority in adaptation research is also reflected in the work of researchers affiliated with institutions in small island developing states, which face a high risk of coastal hazards exacerbated by climate change, including extreme weather events and sea-level rise.
Research on Social Media and the Media
The impact of French research extends far beyond its borders, generating interest through social media and traditional media across Europe, North America, and Australia.
As access to information and communication platforms increases the reach and influence of public opinion in policy-making, it becomes crucial not only to communicate but also to engage other stakeholders in order to translate science into regulatory provisions and, ultimately, into concrete actions.
What are the obstacles to turning an idea into action?
This progression—from idea to action—is a classic step in the life cycle of an intervention. First, a problem or potential impact is identified, which drives scientific research to study its causes and develop solutions to address it. Once this stage is complete, the intervention can be incorporated into legislation, thereby encouraging stakeholders to take action. But is this process applicable to ocean-based options, or are there additional obstacles to consider?
We examined this situation in France with regard to two technological options that are ready for deployment and are already being implemented: marine renewable energy, proposed as a means of mitigating climate change, and infrastructure and societal adaptation technologies designed to address rising sea levels.
With regard to marine renewable energy—a measure considered effective in mitigating climate change, with well-documented and moderate risks—its deployment in France appears to be slow compared to the rest of the world (dotted line in the figure below).
In contrast, measures to support societal adaptation infrastructure appear to be more actively implemented in response to the growing pressures posed by coastal climate risks.
Thus, we observe that as sea-level rise accelerates—and consequently leads to a growing need for coastal protection measures—research, legislation, and action (as reflected in the number of French municipalities exposed to coastal risks that have a natural risk prevention plan (PPRN)) are also on the rise, particularly after 2010.
In summary, when it comes to marine renewable energy, France lags behind the rest of the world in moving from concept to action. This could be explained by the priority given to other mitigation measures (such as nuclear energy). However, we should not limit ourselves to one or just a few options when seeking to increase our overall mitigation potential. France has the opportunity to invest more in research and mitigation efforts.
France has a very strong track record in researching and implementing climate change adaptation measures. Furthermore, we have identified an overall need for research on such measures in developing countries exposed to coastal risks—which could open up new opportunities for French research institutions in terms of supporting research and building capacity in these areas.
As we approach UNOC 3—a critical moment for decision-making—one thing is clear: there is no single solution, but choices must be made; it is therefore essential to find ways to quickly assess and synthesize scientific evidence to inform our actions today, as well as to propose new avenues of research in preparation for the innovative actions of tomorrow.
Devi Veytia, Ph.D., École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL; Adrien Comte, Research Fellow, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD); Frédérique Viard, Research Director in Marine Biology, University of Montpellier; Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Research Professor, CNRS, IDDRI, Sorbonne University; Laurent Bopp, Research Professor, CNRS, École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL; Marie Bonnin, Research Director in Marine Environmental Law, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD) and Yunne Shin, Researcher in Marine Ecology, Research Institute for Development (IRD)
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