The Ocean and Climate: What Are the Options for the Future? A Look at Research in France
In a few days, the third United Nations Ocean Conference (UNOC 3) will take place in Nice, France (Alpes-Maritimes). It will bring together leaders, policymakers, scientists, and stakeholders from around the world with the aim of “accelerating action and mobilizing all actors to conserve and sustainably use the ocean,” with the potential outcome of a “Nice Agreement” consisting of a political declaration negotiated at the UN and voluntary commitments—at least, that is the goal of the organizers, France and Costa Rica.
To support these decisions, scientific information is essential—what is the state of research worldwide and in France regarding ways to harness the solutions the ocean can offer in response to the climate crisis?
Devi Veytia, École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL; Adrien Comte, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD); Frédérique Viard, University of Montpellier; Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Sorbonne University; Laurent Bopp, École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL; Marie Bonnin, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD) and Yunne Shin, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD)
France plays a key role in advancing toward the goal of conserving and sustainably using the ocean, as it possesses the world’s second-largest exclusive economic zone and thus holds significant influence over the use of ocean resources.
However, fulfilling such a necessary yet ambitious mandate to accelerate and mobilize action will not be easy. The UNOC 3 discussions will take place against a backdrop in which the ocean faces challenges unprecedented in human history, particularly due to the increasingly significant impacts of climate change.
These effects are becoming increasingly pronounced in all regions of the world, from the surface to the deepest waters of the Southern Ocean around the Antarctic continent , to densely populated coastal areas where climate-related risks are mounting, particularly affecting fisheries.
Ocean-based solutions to mitigate climate change (for example, by using marine renewable energy sources that reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adapt to its impacts (for example, by building seawalls) are essential.
To optimize their implementation, a comprehensive and objective synthesis of the scientific data is essential. Indeed, an incomplete assessment of the available evidence could lead to biased conclusions, highlighting certain options as particularly suitable while overlooking their side effects or critical gaps in our understanding.
Amid this whirlwind of challenges, what is France’s contribution to the research and implementation of ocean-based solutions?
Based on an analysis of 45,000 articles published between 1934 and 2023, we show that French researchers account for a significant share of global scientific research on adaptation options, but that there are still many areas where action can be taken.
For example, French scientific expertise could be leveraged to support research on adaptation strategies for small island developing states, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Furthermore, research on mitigation options should be expanded, for example in the field of marine renewable energy.
What are ocean-based options?
The ocean covers 70% of the Earth’s surface and has absorbed 30% of human-generated carbon dioxide emissions. Yet, until recently, it was overlooked in the fight against climate change.
Today, many ocean-based options are emerging in discussions among scientists, policymakers, and citizens. These “ocean-based options” refer to actions that:
- mitigate climate change and its effects by using ocean and coastal ecosystems to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions; examples include initiatives that harness the ocean for renewable energy production;
- support the adaptation of coastal communities and ecosystems to the ever-increasing impacts of climate change; these options include fisheries management and ecosystem restoration, as well as the construction of infrastructure to protect coastlines from flooding.
Analyzing research using AI
One of the key roles of science is to provide an unbiased synthesis of scientific data to inform decision-making. However, the explosion in the number of scientific publications makes it increasingly difficult—if not impossible—to conduct such assessments in a comprehensive manner.
This is where artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models come into play; they have already achieved significant success, from chatbots to internet search algorithms.
In a research project currently under review, we have extended these new applications of AI to the science-policy interface, using a large language model to analyze France’s contribution to the research landscape on ocean-based solutions. Using this model, we classified approximately 45,000 scientific articles dedicated to ocean-based solutions.
Globally, we observe that research is unevenly distributed, with 80% of articles focusing on mitigation options. Researchers affiliated with France play a significant role in this regard, as they are among the leading contributors to studies on adaptation options.
This research priority on adaptation is also evident in the work of researchers affiliated with institutions in small island developing states, which face a high risk of coastal hazards exacerbated by climate change, including extreme weather events and sea-level rise.
Research on social media and in the media
The impact of French research extends far beyond its borders, generating interest through social media and traditional media across Europe, North America, and Australia.
As access to information and communication platforms expands the reach and influence of public opinion in policymaking, it becomes crucial not only to communicate but also to engage other stakeholders in order to translate scientific findings into regulatory measures and, ultimately, into concrete actions.
What obstacles stand in the way of turning an idea into action?
This progression, from idea to action, is a classic step in the life cycle of an intervention. First, a problem or potential impact is identified, which drives scientific research to study its causes and develop solutions to address it. Once this stage is complete, the intervention can be incorporated into legislation, thereby encouraging stakeholders to take action. But is this process applicable to ocean-based options, or are there additional obstacles to consider?
We examined this situation in France with regard to two technological options that are ready for deployment and are already being implemented: marine renewable energy, proposed as a means of mitigating climate change, and infrastructure and societal adaptation technologies designed to address rising sea levels.
With regard to marine renewable energy—a measure considered effective in mitigating climate change, with well-documented and moderate risks—its deployment in France appears to be lagging behind the rest of the world (dashed line in the figure below).
In contrast, efforts to promote societal adaptation infrastructure appear to be gaining momentum in response to the growing pressures posed by coastal climate risks.
Thus, we observe that as sea-level rise accelerates—and consequently leads to a growing need for coastal protection measures—research, legislation, and action (as reflected in the number of French municipalities exposed to coastal risks that have a natural risk prevention plan (PPRN)) have also increased, particularly since 2010.
In summary, when it comes to marine renewable energy, France lags behind the rest of the world in moving from concept to action. This could be explained by the priority given to other mitigation measures (such as nuclear energy). However, we should not limit ourselves to one or a few options when aiming to increase our overall mitigation potential. France has the opportunity to invest more in research and mitigation efforts.
France has a very strong track record in researching and implementing climate change adaptation measures. Furthermore, we have identified a widespread need for research on such measures in developing countries exposed to coastal risks—which could open up new opportunities for French research institutions to provide research support and build capacity in these areas.
As we approach UNOC 3—a critical juncture for decision-making—one thing is clear: there is no single solution, but choices must be made; it is therefore essential to find ways to rapidly assess and synthesize scientific evidence to inform our actions today, as well as to propose new avenues of research in preparation for the innovative actions of tomorrow.
Devi Veytia, Ph.D., École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL; Adrien Comte, Research Fellow, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD); Frédérique Viard, Director of Marine Biology Research, University of Montpellier; Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Research Professor, CNRS, Iddri, Sorbonne University; Laurent Bopp, Research Professor, CNRS, École normale supérieure (ENS) – PSL; Marie Bonnin, Research Director in marine environmental law, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) and Yunne Shin, Researcher in marine ecology, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD)
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