Ocean and climate: what options for tomorrow? A look at research in France
In just a few days' time, the third United Nations Ocean Conference (Unoc 3) will be held in Nice, France. It will bring together leaders, decision-makers, scientists and stakeholders from all over the world, with the aim of "accelerating action and mobilizing all actors to conserve and sustainably use the ocean", perhaps culminating in a "Nice Agreement" consisting of a political declaration negotiated at the UN and voluntary declarations - at least, this is the aim of the organizers, France and Costa Rica.
To support these decisions, scientific information is essential - what is the status of research worldwide and, in France, to exploit the solutions that the ocean can offer in the face of the climate crisis?
Devi Veytia, École normale supérieure (ENS) - PSLAdrien Comte, Institute of Research for Development (IRD)Frédérique Viard, University of MontpellierJean-Pierre Gattuso, Sorbonne UniversityLaurent Bopp, École normale supérieure (ENS) - PSL; Marie Bonnin, Institute of Research for Development (IRD) and Yunne Shin, Institute of Research for Development (IRD)
France plays a key role in progressing towards the goal of conserving and sustainably using the ocean, since, with the world's second largest exclusive economic zone, it holds a large share of the power to guide the use of ocean resources.
However, fulfilling such a necessary and ambitious mandate to accelerate and mobilize action will not be easy. The Unoc 3 discussions will take place against a backdrop of unprecedented challenges for the oceans in the history of mankind, not least because of the growing impact of climate change.
These effects are manifesting themselves with increasing intensity in all regions of the world, from the surface to the deepest waters of the Southern Ocean around the Antarctic continent, to densely populated coastal areas where climate risks are accumulating, affecting fisheries in particular.
Ocean-based options for mitigating climate change (e.g. by using marine renewable energies that limit greenhouse gas emissions) and adapting to its impacts (e.g. by building sea walls) are essential.
To optimize their deployment, an exhaustive and objective synthesis of scientific data is essential. Indeed, an incomplete assessment of the available evidence could lead to biased conclusions, highlighting certain options as particularly suitable while overlooking their side effects or critical gaps in knowledge.
In the midst of this maelstrom of challenges, what is France's contribution to the research and deployment of ocean-based options?
Through a study of 45,000 articles published between 1934 and 2023, we show that French researchers publish a significant proportion of the world's scientific research on adaptation options, but that there are still many levers for action.
For example, French scientific expertise could be developed to support research into the adaptation of small island developing states, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Research into mitigation options should also be expanded, for example in the field of marine renewable energies.
What are ocean-based options?
The ocean covers 70% of the Earth's surface and has absorbed 30% of human carbon dioxide emissions. Yet, until recently, it has been neglected in the fight against climate change.
Today, numerous ocean-based options are emerging in dialogues between scientists, political decision-makers and citizens. These "ocean-based options" concern actions that :
- mitigate climate change and its effects by using ocean and coastal ecosystems to reduce emissions of atmospheric greenhouse gases, for example by using the ocean to produce renewable energy;
- support the adaptation of coastal communities and ecosystems to the ever-increasing impacts of climate change; these options include fisheries management and ecosystem restoration, as well as the construction of infrastructure to protect coastlines from flooding.
Analyzing search with AI
One of the key roles of science is to provide an unbiased synthesis of scientific data to inform decisions. However, the explosion in the number of scientific publications is making it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to carry out these assessments exhaustively.
This is where artificial intelligence (AI) and large-scale language models come into play, and they're already enjoying considerable success, from conversational robots to Internet search algorithms.
In a research work currently under evaluation, we have extended these new AI applications to the science-policy interface, using a large language model to analyze France's contribution to the ocean-based options research landscape. Thanks to this model, we have classified around 45,000 scientific articles dedicated to ocean-based options.
At global level, research is unevenly distributed, with 80% of articles focusing on mitigation options. Authors of research work affiliated with France play an important role here, as they are among the main contributors to work dedicated to adaptation options.
This adaptation research priority is also present in the work of researchers affiliated with institutions in small island developing states, which present a high risk of coastal hazards exacerbated by climate change, with extreme weather events and rising sea levels.
Social networking and media research
The impact of French research extends far beyond its borders, generating interest via social networks and traditional media across Europe, North America and Australia.
As access to information and dissemination platforms increases the reach and influence of public opinion in policy-making, it becomes crucial not only to communicate, but also to involve other players in translating science into regulatory provisions and, ultimately, concrete action.
What are the obstacles to turning ideas into action?
This evolution, from idea to action, is a classic progression in the life cycle of an intervention. First, a problem or potential impact is identified, motivating scientific research to investigate its causes and develop solutions to address it. Once this stage has been completed, the intervention can be incorporated into legislation, prompting stakeholders to take action. But is this process applicable to ocean-based options, or are there additional hurdles to consider?
We have studied this situation in France for two technological options ready for deployment and already implemented: marine renewable energies, proposed to mitigate climate change, and built infrastructures and societal adaptation technologies in the face of rising sea levels.
With regard to marine renewable energies - an intervention deemed effective in mitigating climate change and whose risks are well-documented and moderate - deployment in France seems slow compared to the rest of the world (dotted line in the figure below).
On the other hand, the levers for action in favor of societal adaptation infrastructures seem to be more mobilized in the face of the growing pressures exerted by coastal climate risks.
Thus, as sea-level rise increases, and with it the need for coastal protection, research, legislation and action (as represented by the number of French communes exposed to coastal risks benefiting from a natural risk prevention plan (PPRN)) also increase, particularly after 2010.
To sum up, when it comes to marine renewable energies, France is lagging behind the rest of the world in the transition from idea to action. This could be explained by the priority given to other mitigation measures (e.g. nuclear power). However, we should not limit ourselves to one or a few options in order to increase our overall mitigation potential. France has the opportunity to invest more in mitigation research and action.
France has a very good track record in researching and implementing climate change adaptation options. In addition, we have identified a global need for research on these options in developing countries exposed to coastal risks - which could open up new opportunities for French research institutions to support research and build capacity in these fields.
As we approach Unoc 3 - a critical moment for decision-making - one thing is clear: there is no single solution, but choices are necessary; it is therefore essential to find ways of rapidly evaluating and synthesizing scientific evidence to inform our actions today, as well as proposing new avenues of research ahead of tomorrow's innovative actions.
Devi Veytia, Dr, École normale supérieure (ENS) - PSLAdrien Comte, Researcher, Institute of Research for Development (IRD)Frédérique Viard, Director of Marine Biology Research, University of MontpellierJean-Pierre Gattuso, Research Professor, CNRS, Iddri, Sorbonne UniversityLaurent Bopp, Research Professor, CNRS, École normale supérieure (ENS) - PSL; Marie Bonnin, Research Director in marine environmental law, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) and Yunne Shin, Researcher in marine ecology, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD)
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.