NUMEV MIPS seminar "Modeling population dynamics and species distribution: challenges at the interface of physics and ecology".

Predicting biodiversity dynamics in a context of environmental change is a major challenge for science and society. In particular, modeling the spatial distribution of populations and studying the impact of interspecific interactions on biodiversity patterns have long been addressed by ecologists and physicists. Various modelling methods, including differential equation models, stochastic modelling approaches and cellular automata, have been considered in both disciplines, but conceptual and practical obstacles remain to a better understanding of biodiversity dynamics.

I will outline the ongoing dialogue between ecological and physical researchers in the context of two types of ecological models, namely metapopulation and metacommunity approaches. The first studies the probability of occurrence of species populations over a set of potential habitat units, constituting a spatial network over which colonization and extinction events occur. The second examines whether and how many species can coexist in habitat units, depending on the nature and architecture of their interactions.

I'll conclude with a few specific and concrete challenges for which it will be essential to pursue and deepen the scientific interaction between physics and ecology.