Procrastination on the aircraft of the future: when Europe's defense industry comes up against its own contradictions
Coopetition", i.e. cooperation on a given project by two players who are otherwise in competition, is a complex process that can stall at various points. This can be seen by examining the difficult progress of the Future Aircraft project, jointly led by Dassault and Airbus Defense and Space.
Chloé Zanardi, TBS Education and Frédéric Le Roy, University of Montpellier
While Dassault continues to enjoy international success with its Rafale, the Future Air Combat System (Scaf) project, which is supposed to embody the future of European combat aviation, is bogged down. The summer of 2025 marked a further setback for the ambitious Future Combat Aircraft program, which brings together Dassault, representing French interests, and Airbus Defense and Space, representing German interests.
Since its inception, the project, which is presented primarily as a " cooperative venture " between Dassault and Airbus Defense and Space, has struggled to make headway, despite being billed as the successor to the Rafale. On July 22, Dassault CEO Éric Trappier denounced project governance "without a real leader" and threatened to leave the program. Berlin retaliated by warning against any change of governance in favor of the French manufacturer, before threatening to leave the project and look for new partners.
In a geopolitical context in which Europe is seeking to strengthen its strategic autonomy, cooperation has come to a standstill. The central question is how to reconcile the defense interests of European states, which necessitate ambitious European programs such as Scaf, with the interests of national companies.
What is Scaf, and why is it strategic?
Born in 2017, the Scaf project aims to develop a fighter aircraft capable of competing with the American F-35 Lightning II. According to France, Germany and Spain, the F-35 represents a threat to European sovereignty and justifies the launch of a specifically European program.
The Scaf is scheduled to enter service in 2040, with ambitious targets. It is a system of systems, including a stealth aircraft, a "combat cloud" and a fleet of UAVs, designed to meet the rising technological standards of other powers. The project is currently in phase 1B, the preparatory stage before construction of a flight demonstrator in phase 2. https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN_G4iN1rdo?wmode=transparent&start=0
For Berlin, the aim is to ensure the continuity of its military aircraft industry through close cooperation with France and Spain. "The success of the project is an essential prerequisite for the competitiveness of the German and European military aircraft industry," emphasizes the German Federal Ministry of Defense in the 19th German Armament Report.
Cooperation and sovereignty: Scaf's European dilemma
Coopetition, i.e. cooperation with a competitor, is based on a paradoxical logic. Companies collaborate to create value, but at the same time seek to capture as much of it as possible for themselves. This leads them to share knowledge in order to progress and co-innovate, while protecting their strategic knowledge to avoid unwanted transfers. Co-operation therefore combines trust and mistrust in equal measure, and inevitably generates tensions.
On a European scale, coopetition between states and between manufacturers appears to be a strategic lever for strengthening technological sovereignty. But this strategy also entails major risks: transfer of sensitive knowledge, asymmetrical capture of value co-created with a partner... who remains, despite everything, a competitor(Le Roy et al., 2022).
These issues take on a particular dimension when they concern sovereignty. Cooperating with a foreign manufacturer, even a European one, can mean giving it the means to compete with you in the future.
In the Scaf project, this cooperative dilemma is particularly important. Dassault, on the French side, and Airbus Defense and Space, on the German side, must cooperate to develop the aircraft of the future as part of a European ambition. But Dassault and Airbus Defense and Space are in competition on the world market, with the Rafale for Dassault and the Eurofighter for Airbus. Since the launch of the program, this ambivalent relationship has fuelled persistent tensions that are undermining its progress.
Cooperative" tensions in the Scaf project
Tensions between Dassault and Airbus Defense and Space initially concerned the division of tasks and governance of the project. Initially, an agreement provided for a 50/50 split, with Dassault designated prime contractor due to its expertise. In 2019, however, the inclusion of Spain has led the States to propose a three-way split.
The rebalancing, perceived as a challenge to Dassault's central role, marked the start of a conflict that never subsided. Airbus considered the distribution unfair and contested French ownership, while Dassault refused to give in. In the absence of agreement, phase 1B of the program, aimed at building a flight demonstrator, was blocked.
Tensions also concern the sharing of knowledge, an issue directly linked to issues of sovereignty. Berlin has asked Dassault to open up access to certain technologies, which the French manufacturer has refused for fear of an unwanted transfer of knowledge. Airbus Defense and Space, however, considers that without this exchange, it will not be able to fully benefit from co-development. Already in 2021, Angela Merkel stressed that "questions of industrial property, task sharing and leadership" remained central. Dassault's CEO replied: "If I give my background today and the program is cancelled in two years' time, how will I be protected from the competition?" https://www.youtube.com/embed/a9czGLMncO4?wmode=transparent&start=0
At the end of 2022, a political compromise was reached between Paris and Berlin to unblock phase 1B and confirm Dassault's role. But disagreements persist and are once again slowing down the program, at the risk of compromising the rest of the project. Dassault Aviation is calling for clearer governance, to give it the latitude it needs to exercise its role as prime contractor for Pillar 1 (aircraft development).
"The question arises as to the effectiveness of the project, which brings together three countries [...] where there is no real leader but three "co-co-co". [...] How can I provide leadership when I'm up against someone who weighs twice as much? How can I lead a program when I don't even have the right to choose my subcontractors in France, Spain and Germany? This is not the right way to fly an aircraft", summed up Éric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation, on July 22.
Airbus Defense and Space, for its part, rejects any change in governance. "If people want Scaf to exist, we all know how to do it. All we have to do is go back to what was agreed and stick to it. But if some people think we have to start from scratch, that's not acceptable," declared CEO Michael Schoellhorn on June 19, 2025 at the Paris Air Show.
As a result, the project remains stuck in phase 1B, which is supposed to lead to a flight demonstrator. For the time being, the "air combat system of the future" exists only as a paper aircraft. A long cooperative road lies ahead.
The Scaf is at the heart of a debate involving sovereignty, coopetition between states and companies, and the sharing of technological know-how. Coopetitive tensions are jeopardizing the project's progress, while governments, far more than mere financiers, are emerging as the political orchestrators and arbiters of this fragile coopetition. "We will make a decision on the future of the project at the end of the year", warned Friedrich Merz at the end of August, reminding us that the process "cannot go on indefinitely" and that it is now imperative to "break the deadlock and accelerate, because the project can no longer tolerate any postponement". But how?
Managing cooperative tensions
Research on coopetition shows that coopetitive projects are riddled with paradoxical situations that firms must learn to manage(Le Roy et al., 2024). Co-operators must simultaneously share and protect their knowledge, co-create value while seeking to appropriate it individually, develop trust while cultivating a certain mistrust. Their strategic interests may diverge, generating tensions linked to opportunistic behavior or project governance, as illustrated by the case of Scaf. If they are not anticipated and managed, these tensions risk hampering the collaborative dynamic and slowing down project progress.
The management of cooperative projects thus calls for adapted systems: structural separation of cooperative and competitive activities, individual integration of cooperative paradoxes, and the implementation of specific formal and informal mechanisms.
In some cases, the literature also highlights the importance of using a third-party player, capable of taking on the role of neutral orchestrator. For example, research into the European Galileo program, the flagship program of the European space industry, involving competitors OHB, Thales Alenia Space and Airbus Defence and Space, reveals the cooperative tensions within the project that fuelled tensions between the cooperators(Rouyre et al., 2019).
Each player suspected the others of being "free riders" or "knowledge hunters", thus hindering the sharing of strategic information. To overcome these blockages, the European Space Agency (ESA) took on the role of neutral orchestrator, centralizing knowledge flows, clearly dividing up industrial responsibilities, formalizing processes and carrying out technical coordination. This formal governance helped limit tensions and ensure the project's success.
The need to manage coopetition and its tensions highlights two major points of vigilance for Scaf. Firstly, the apparent absence of mechanisms adapted to the management of a cooperative project (separation of activities, integration of paradoxes, formal and informal mechanisms). Secondly, the absence of a neutral orchestrator between the two cooperators. Drawing inspiration from coopetition management systems identified by management science research could offer concrete ways to better contain these tensions and give new impetus to this highly strategic project for European sovereignty.
Managing coopetition: a key challenge for the future of European defense
The Scaf project is the mirror image of European dilemmas: the need to cooperate in order to weigh up against the great powers, but also the desire to preserve national companies.
It shows that one of the major challenges in building a European defense system lies in the ability to manage cooperative projects involving companies and states with divergent interests. Two scenarios are possible. If Scaf succeeds, it could become a symbol of shared sovereignty and collaborative innovation between European competitors: a model that could be transposed to space, artificial intelligence or cyber. On the other hand, failure would send a worrying signal. Not only would it mean abandoning a strategic program for Europe, it would also demonstrate the structural limits of the ambition to build a genuine European defense.
The fundamental challenge is therefore clear: to learn how to manage coopetition on a European scale in relation to issues of sovereignty, and turn it into a lever for innovation, rather than letting it turn into a field of paralyzing rivalry.
Chloé Zanardi, Assistant professor, TBS Education and Frédéric Le Roy, Professor of Strategic Management - MOMA and Montpellier Business School, University of Montpellier
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.