[LUM#12] The challenge of adaptation

[LUM Magazine] - Published on June 11, 2020 in Science-Society

Keeping the temperature increase below 2 degrees, or even 1.5 degrees! That is the goal of the Paris Agreement, ratified by more than 200 countries in 2015. Failure to meet this target will see 90% of humanity impacted by a sharp decline in agricultural production and fishing, according to an international study published in Science Advance.

"1.5 degrees—no scientist believes that anymore! We'll be very lucky if we can stay below 2 degrees! In the past, the collapse of societies has almost always been the result of a failure to adapt. " For David Mouillot, a researcher at the Montpellier Laboratory for Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation, and Conservation (MARBEC), "it is urgent that the international community adapt." Because if this fateful 2-degree mark is exceeded, 90% of the world's human population will be exposed to significant productivity losses in the fishing and agriculture sectors.

90% of the world's population affected

This figure comes from an international study conducted by MARBEC and Canadian, British, and Australian laboratories. The economy, employment, and food supply are the three indicators used to measure countries' dependence on agriculture and fishing, "how many jobs it provides, what percentage of GDP it represents, or what share of the daily food supply it accounts for," explains David Mouillot.

According to various models of future climate, "the areas most affected are Southeast Asia and Africa. New Zealand's agriculture will be severely impacted, while in Indonesia it will be fishing, and Madagascar and Ethiopia are at risk of terrible famines. " And while scientists had hoped that compensatory effects between agriculture and fishing would limit the damage, the study's findings unfortunately do not support this view.

Only a few winners

Other countries, among the major CO2 emitters, are also among the losers. The United States is likely to see a sharp decline in its wheat and corn production, as well as its fishing industry. The same goes for Saudi Arabia, India, China, and others. "What is completely absurd is that they are losing out, but they are not making any effort to reduce their CO2 emissions, " says the researcher indignantly.

However, the house is not burning at the same rate for everyone, so 3% of the population could benefit from productivity gains by 2100. Among the big winners are Canada, Japan, Russia, Scandinavia, and England." If resources become scarce, if wheat is less productive in the United States or Ukraine, it will sell for more. Canadians are adapting and starting to grow it."

Adapt to resist

However, compliance with the Paris Agreement would limit these productivity losses for most countries, including the most vulnerable, from -25% to -5% for agriculture and from -60% to -15% for fisheries. "We have ten years left, time is running out fast, and we are already behind schedule in terms of the Paris Agreement! In any case, we will have to adopt adaptation strategies and change our consumption patterns," warns the biologist.
Choose more heat-resistant crops, replace corn with wheat, consume new species of fish. "You're going to have to be prepared to serve your guests jellyfish, octopus, or lionfish... Adaptation also means a change in culture in that sense!"

Keywords: Agriculture, Climate, Economy, Environment, LUM#12, LUM Magazine, Company