[LUM#12] The Challenge of Adaptation
Keeping the rise in temperature below the 2-degree threshold—or even 1.5 degrees!—is the goal of the Paris Agreement, ratified by more than 200 countries in 2015. If this target is not met, 90% of humanity will be affected by a sharp decline in agricultural production and fisheries, according to an international study published in Science Advances.
“1.5 degrees—no scientist believes in that anymore! We’ll be very lucky if we even stay under 2 degrees! In the past, the collapse of societies has almost always been the result of a failure to adapt. ” According to David Mouillot, a researcher at the Montpellier Laboratory of Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation, and Conservation (MARBEC), “it is urgent that the international community adapt.” Because if this critical 2-degree threshold were to be crossed, 90% of the global human population would face significant productivity losses in the fishing and agricultural sectors.
90% of the world's population affected
This figure comes from an international study conducted by MARBEC and laboratories in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The economy, employment, and food supply are the three indicators used to measure countries’ dependence on their agriculture and fisheries sectors —“how many jobs it provides, what percentage of GDP it accounts for , or what share of the daily food supply it represents,” explains David Mouillot.
According to various models of future climate change, “the regions most severely affected are Southeast Asia and Africa. New Zealand’s agriculture will be severely impacted; in Indonesia, it will be the fishing industry; and Madagascar and Ethiopia are at risk of facing terrible famines. ” And while scientists had hoped that compensatory effects between agriculture and fisheries would help limit the damage, the study’s findings unfortunately do not support this view.
Only a few winners
Other countries that are major CO2 emitters are also among the losers. The United States risks seeing its wheat and corn production, as well as its fishing industry, severely slowed down. The same goes for Saudi Arabia, India, China… “What is completely absurd is that they are among the losers but are making no effort to reduce their CO2 emissions,” the researcher says indignantly.
However, the house isn’t burning at the same rate for everyone, so 3% of the population could benefit from productivity gains by 2100. Among these big winners are Canada, Japan, Russia, Scandinavia, and the United Kingdom.“ If resources become scarce, if wheat yields decline in the United States or Ukraine, it will sell for a higher price. Canadians are adapting and starting to grow it.”
Adapt to survive
Compliance with the Paris Agreement would, however, limit these productivity losses for most countries—including the most vulnerable ones—reducing them from -25% to -5% for agriculture and from -60% to -15% for fisheries. “We have ten years left; time is flying by, and we’re already behind on the Paris Agreement! In any case, we’ll have to adopt adaptation strategies and change our consumption patterns,” warns the biologist.
Choosing crops that are more heat-resistant, replacing corn with wheat, and consuming new species of fish. “You’ll have to get ready to serve your guests jellyfish, octopus, or lionfish… Adaptation means a cultural shift in that sense, too!”
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