The challenge of adaptation

Keep the temperature rise below 2 degrees or even 1.5 degrees! That's what's at stake in the Paris agreements, ratified by over 200 states in 2015. If we fail to comply, 90% of humanity will be affected by a sharp drop in agricultural and fishing production, according to an international study published in Science Advance.

"No scientist believes in 1.5 degrees anymore! If we stay below 2 degrees, we'll already be very lucky! In the past, the collapse of societies has almost always been the consequence of a lack of adaptation." For David Mouillot, researcher at the Montpellier Laboratory of Biodiversity, Exploitation and Marine Conservation(MARBEC), "the international community urgently needs to adapt". For if the fateful 2-degree mark were to be passed, 90% of the world's human population would be exposed to major productivity losses in the fishing and agricultural sectors.

90% of the world's population affected

This figure is the result of an international study conducted by MARBEC and laboratories in Canada, the UK and Australia. The economy, employment and food intake are the three indices used to measure a country's dependence on agriculture and fishing, "how many jobs it provides, what percentage of GDP or what share of the daily food intake it represents", explains David Mouillot.

According to various future climate models, "the areas most affected are Southeast Asia and Africa. New Zealand's agriculture will be hit hardest, while Indonesia's fishing industry will suffer, and Madagascar and Ethiopia are likely to experience terrible famines. And while the scientists had hoped that compensation phenomena between agriculture and fishing would limit the damage, the study's conclusions unfortunately do not support this view.

Just a few winners

Other countries, among the biggest CO2 emitters, are also among the losers. The United States is likely to see its wheat and corn production, as well as its fishing, slow down considerably. Ditto for Saudi Arabia, India, China... ". What's totally absurd is that they're losing out, but they're not making any effort to reduce their CO2 emissions," says the researcher.

However, the house is not burning down at the same rate for everyone, and 3% of the population could benefit from productivity gains by 2100. These big winners include Canada, Japan, Russia, Scandinavia and England. " If resources become scarcer, if wheat is less productive in the United States or Ukraine, it will sell for more. Canadians are adapting and starting to grow it.

Adapting to resist

However, compliance with the Paris agreements would limit these productivity losses for most countries, including the most vulnerable, from -25% to -5% for agriculture and from -60% to -15% for fishing. "We've got ten years to go, and we're already behind the Paris Agreement! In any case, we're going to have to adopt adaptation strategies and change our consumption patterns," warns the biologist.
Choose crops that are more resistant to heat, replace corn with wheat, eat new species of fish. "You'll have to be prepared to serve your guests jellyfish, octopus or lionfish... Adaptation is a change of culture in this sense too!