[LUM#15] The Groundwork for Conflict

[LUM Magazine] - Published on February 24, 2022 in Science and Society

Economist Raphaël Soubeyran offers a different perspective on the violence sweeping across the African continent; he has studied unequal access to fertile land as a factor in conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa.

Wars of independence, power, or borders; identity-based or secessionist conflicts; subnational or local struggles… The range of violence is vast when it comes to exploring the multitude of conflicts scattered across the globe, including the African continent, the scene of numerous events. Through what lens should we view them? While ethnic tensions or disparities in wealth between countries are often highlighted, they do not explain everything… “Conflicts always stem from multiple and complex causes, ” explains Raphaël Soubeyran.

Together with his colleagues Nicolas Berman and Mathieu Couttenier, the economist examined a cause that is still underestimated: inequalities in access to fertile land, an unsuspected breeding ground for violence. “We studied the impact of agricultural land productivity on conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa over the period from 1997 to 2013,” explains the director of the Montpellier Center for Environmental Economics ( CEE-M)*. This factor is all the more significant in this region of the world, where 62% of the population lived in rural areas in 2015. Their groundbreaking analysis suggests that the greater the differences in soil fertility, the higher the risk of local violence.

Focus on Fertilizers

How did the economists go about analyzing this complex relationship? “Studying how differences in soil fertility affect conflicts is not simple,” says Raphaël Soubeyran, who points to the scarcity of data, as well as the fact that “soil quality may be correlated with other local characteristics that are also sources of conflict.” The authors therefore chose an indirect method: “We combined information on natural soil fertility and locally produced agricultural goods with data on fluctuations in global prices for fertilizer components.”

Why fertilizers? Because these products have different effects depending on the natural fertility of the soil. “When fertilizers are more expensive, the difference in yield between naturally fertile land and less fertile land will be greater, ” the economist points out. And these differences in yield are themselves a source of potential conflict. “Fluctuations in global fertilizer prices can therefore be used to study the impact of increasing disparities in soil fertility on local conflicts.”

Game Theory

Conflict analysis is no simple matter and has been the subject of extensive research in economics. To conduct their study, the researchers used a model based on what is known as game theory, which examines situations in which individuals make decisions. “In our study, individuals have a choice between two options: working their land to generate agricultural income or entering into conflict with their neighbor in an attempt to seize their land,” explains the director of the CEE-M. “If they opt for the second choice, they run the risk of losing their own agricultural production, which will have been neglected in favor of the conflict.”

This is where differences in fertility come into play: when one’s own income from farming falls much more sharply than a neighbor’s, working one’s own land becomes less profitable. “So getting into a conflict with a neighbor to get one’s hands on their produce—grown on more fertile land—becomes a choice that can be described as profitable, ” explains Raphaël Soubeyran.

Agrarian Reforms

And the more heterogeneous the soil quality, the greater the effect will be, particularly in heavily agricultural regions. “Our estimates suggest that, in regions with highly variable soil quality, when fertilizer prices rise, the probability of conflict increases by 9.6 percent, compared with 5.9 percent for less heterogeneous lands.” Inequality in access to fertile land is thus a significant factor in conflict.

It can therefore serve as a means of safeguarding against future tensions, which are bound to increase in a context where global warming and growing drought will inevitably affect soil fertility. “This new data should be taken into account during agrarian reforms to redistribute land to those who cultivate it. Redistribution policy should take soil fertility into account at the time of distribution, ” recommends Raphaël Soubeyran. So that these lands no longer give rise to conflicts.

*Center for Environmental Economics – Montpellier – CEE-M (UM CNRS – INRAE – Institut Agro)

Keywords: Agriculture, Economy, LUM#15, LumLu, LUM Magazine, Company