[LUM#4] Welcome to an older world

[LUM Magazine] - Published on February 7, 2017 in Science-Society

How much will demographic aging cost? What consequences will it have on our society? These are crucial questions, as indicated by the entry into force in 2016 of a law "on adapting society to aging"...

By 2050, one in three French people will be aged 60 or over. The baby boomer grandparents¹ are here to stay: with longer life expectancy, they are one of the main factors in the aging of our country's population. The first question that arises is: how can we finance the wave of retirements looming on the horizon?

Financing pensions

This "top-down" aging—that is, growth in the over-60 age group—would not in itself be so alarming. "In France, the working population is expected to continue growing until 2050 due to a relatively high fertility rate, averaging around two children per woman, and positive migration flows. This should at least protect us from an aging population from below, as is the case in other countries, such as Japan," explains Brice Magdalou, professor of economics and researcher at the Montpellier Laboratory of Theoretical and Applied Economics (Lameta), now known as Ceem.

Another factor to consider is that the baby boom effect will naturally fade away starting in the 2030s. So will the financing of our pensions be secure? In fact, the problem is only temporarily postponed. "Successive pension reforms since 1993 have brought the system into balance. But our system will once again be in deficit in 2020 if nothing is done: we will then need to find new resources, amounting to 0.5% to 1% of our GDP from 2020 onwards. This means that newreformswill have to be implemented."

Changing society

What kind of society will emerge from this aging population? "It will accompany and even accentuate the profound changes that the labor market is currently undergoing. Increased flexibility and mobility, the development of micro-enterprises and self-employment, and an increase in direct personal services: these are the trends that can be predicted," says Brice Magdalou, who refers to an "uberization."² " in our society.

The senior generation invented May 1968 and launched sexual liberalization. Materialistic and nurtured by the golden age of the 1950s, it also remains imbued with a culture of solidarity and social cohesion. Where is it taking us? The only certainty is that, whether bohemian or bourgeois, baby boomers will be an essential part of tomorrow's society. And key players in change...

1. Boomer grandparents: this expression, modeled on baby boom, reflects the current aging of these large generations born from 1946 onwards.
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2. From the name of the company Uber: refers to the emergence of services based on new technologies that enable professionals and customers to connect directly. ↩︎

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