[LUM#4] Welcome to an older world
How much will demographic ageing cost? What impact will it have on our society? Crucial questions, as indicated by the entry into force in 2016 of a law "relative to the adaptation of society to aging"...
By 2050, one in three French people will be aged 60 or over. The papys boomers1 are here, and they're here to stay: along with longer life expectancy, they're one of the main parameters of an aging process that is having a major impact on our country's population. The first question that arises is how to finance the wave of retirements looming on the horizon.
Financing pensions
This aging "from above" - i.e., an increase in the number of over-60s - would not in itself be all that alarming. " In France, the working population should continue to grow until 2050, thanks to a relatively high fertility rate, averaging around 2 children per woman, and positive migratory flows. This should at least protect us from an ageing population from below, as is the case in other countries, such as Japan, " explains Brice Magdalou, professor of economics and researcher at the Laboratoire Montpellierrain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée (Lameta), now the Ceem.
Another factor to consider is that the baby boom effect will naturally fade from the 2030s onwards. Does this mean that the financing of our pensions is assured? In fact, the problem is only temporarily postponed. " Successive pension reforms since 1993 have enabled us to balance the system. But if nothing is done, our system will once again be in deficit by 2020, and we'll need to find new resources, amounting to between 0.5% and 1% of our GDP by 2020. This implies the need for newreforms.
A changing company
What kind of society will emerge from this aging population? "It will accompany, if not accentuate, the profound changes currently taking place in the labor market. Increased flexibility and mobility, the development of micro-businesses and self-employment, an increase in direct personal services: these are the trends we can foresee," points out Brice Magdalou, who speaks of "uberization".2 "of our society.
The senior generation invented May '68, launched sexual liberalization; materialistic and nourished on the enchanted breast of the 30 glorious years, it also remains imbued with a culture of solidarity and social ties. What kind of world is it leading us towards? Only one thing is certain: bohemian or bourgeois, boomers will be an essential part of tomorrow's society. And they will be key players in change...
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