The weight of record abstention: when there is no longer a choice
Political protest can take many forms and convey a variety of messages. Abstention—with its rejection of politics—is the most visible and emblematic form. On Sunday, June 11, with more than one in two voters not participating in the election of their representative, it reached a new peak.
Aurélia Troupel, University of Montpellier
With 51.3% of voters abstaining in the first round, it was indeed much higher than in the presidential election, but it is in line with on the peaks already reached in 2015 during the regional elections (1er tour) and departmental elections, and remains much lower than in the last European elections (57.6%).
This ebb and flow of abstention, depending on the election, can be explained by the many factors at play.
A variety of factors
The importance voters attach to the election and the intensity and quality of the campaign are the primary factors that may explain this variation. Presidential elections are thus more mobilizing than legislative elections.
Although the campaign was partly overshadowed by Emmanuel Macron's first steps after coming to power, the stakes for this first round were all the higher because there was a sense of revenge to be taken at the polls for the two major parties that had been eliminated, as well as for La France Insoumise (FI) and the FN, which were seeking to win as many seats as possible. However, with voting intentions pointing to a clear victory for LREM, the "hangover" among voters and activists and, to a lesser extent, "electoral fatigue" (this is the sixth election in three years) seem to have fueled voter apathy.
Beyond these cyclical effects, there is also what some callsociological abstention. Young people, those with fewer qualifications, and the working classes are often the least likely to go to the polls. Incorrect registration, i.e., voting at the polling station corresponding to one's former address or another residence (parental, secondary), makes the act of voting more "costly," if not impossible (see the bug on the electoral rolls).
Subject to variation, even if the general trend is upward, the abstention rate is often analyzed as a marker of the state of democracy. Particularly commented on at the time of the announcement of the results, it then sinks into oblivion until it becomes, in turn, a new benchmark for voter turnout. However, in the case of this first round of legislative elections, this record abstention rate has significant repercussions on the rest of the democratic process.
A choice limited by abstention in thesecond round
Chosen by a small minority of voters, the legitimacy of the future Assembly is already the subject of much criticism, compounded by its almost monochrome color according to projections and the large number of newcomers entering the Palais Bourbon.
However, between thefirst andsecond rounds, this high percentage of abstentions has already had an impact, given the voting system in place for the legislative elections. For the first time, the exception has largely become the rule.
To qualify for the second round, candidates must obtain at least 12.5% of the registered voters. Along with the departmental (formerly cantonal) elections, these are the only elections based on registered voters rather than votes cast. When the score is calculated based on registered voters, it takes into account all voters who actually cast a ballot; conversely, when it is calculated based on votes cast, abstentions (like blank votes) are removed from the equation. In this sense, elections based on registered voters would therefore be more representative than those based on votes cast. They are also, in fact, more difficult for candidates in that, depending on abstention, the score required to reach the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters is high.
For example, in Moselle, Mathilde Huchot obtained 12.52% of registered voters, equivalent to 27.3% of votes cast, once 52.8% of abstentions and 1.3% of blank and invalid votes were excluded. Under these conditions, the number of candidates qualifying for the second round may be limited. In order to ensure that there are at least two candidates in the second round, to guarantee political pluralism and to give voters a choice, a backup mechanism has been put in place: the repechage. Thus, if there is only one qualified candidate, the candidate who comes in second place is automatically guaranteed a place in the next round.
The particularly high abstention rate inthe first round multiplied this configuration: in 68% of constituencies, only one candidate crossed the 12.5% threshold and the other was repêché. In 14% of constituencies, both candidates had to be repêchés. In the end, only 18% of constituencies saw both candidates qualify normally. In this first round, the exception—the second chance—became the rule.
While LREM candidates most often secured a place in the second round, other political parties also benefited greatly from this system: nearly two-thirds of LR and UDI candidates were re-elected, as were 80% of Socialist candidates, 88.3% of FN candidates, and 97% of FI candidates. Although not explicitly explained to voters, this route to the second round favors the most popular candidates, i.e., those who attract both loyal and protest votes, as is the case with the FN.
Although they are not directly involved in the political process, this large number of abstainers, combined with a high qualification threshold and a large number of candidates, has a significant impact on the outcome of the election. In the short term, this affects the selection of candidates; in the long term, it affects the credibility of the election.
Restoring meaning and weight to the ballot
To curb abstention, several avenues could be explored. While current debates focus on changing the voting system with the introduction of a “dose” of proportional representationHowever, it would seem more useful to give voters more power by restoring meaning to the act of voting and, above all, giving weight to their ballots.
Thinking about the tools to give citizens so that they can find their way around when it comes to making choices and reclaiming ownership of elections could be a first avenue to explore in the fight against abstention. Explaining why we vote, but also in what context, by clarifying the role and functions of the various assemblies and explaining what would happen if there were no majority or, conversely, if the majority were too dominant, would help to clarify the debate. Understanding and knowing the ins and outs of an election helps to generate interest and thus mobilize voters.
But voting is also an inclusive act. To emphasize belonging to the citizen "community," various measures could be devised. For young people, for example, rather than automatic, impersonal registration, this could take place within the framework of a Citizenship Day organized in high schools. Backed by a course on the history of voting rights, this republican moment could be a way to lend solemnity to their entry into active citizenship. Similarly, some polling stations could be relocated and placed in the heart of large cities to promote the integration of more working-class groups. New, more targeted republican rituals could thus be devised to enable all citizens to fully enjoy their rights.
This first dimension is necessarily complemented by a second: (re)establishing voting as a decisive act with real impact. When both candidates have been disqualified, the election should be canceled; below a certain threshold (e.g., 10% of registered voters), candidates should be eliminated; the blank votes should be considered as votes cast.
Rather than changing the voting system, it is the electoral calendar that needs to be adjusted. Not by holding the presidential and legislative elections on the same day, or by holding the latter before the former, but simply by abolishing the five-year term. Since the presidential term was reduced to five years, the legislative elections have been overshadowed by the presidential elections, and the electoral cycle has become far too intense and almost permanent.
If the The voter registration process has just been revised. To reduce abstention, it is urgent to go further and adopt both institutional and more practical measures. Because this Sunday, the record of 51.3% could well be broken again.
Aurélia Troupel, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, University of Montpellier
The original version of this article was published on The Conversation.