The Impact of Record-High Voter Turnout: When There Is No Choice Left
Political protest can take many forms and encompasses a wide range of messages. As an emblematic phenomenon, voter abstention—with its rejection of the political process—is the most visible. On Sunday, June 11, with more than one in two voters failing to participate in the election of their representative, it reached a new high.
Aurélia Troupel, University of Montpellier
With a 51.3% abstention rate in the first round, it was indeed much higher than in the presidential election but is in line with compared to the levels already reached in 2015 during the regional elections (1er (round) and departmental elections, and remains significantly lower than in the last European elections (57.6%).
This fluctuation in voter turnout, which varies from election to election, can be attributed to the many factors at play.
A variety of factors
The importance voters attach to the election, as well as the intensity and quality of the campaign, are the primary factors that may account for this variation. Presidential elections thus tend to mobilize voters more than legislative elections.
Although the campaign was partly overshadowed by the initial steps taken following Emmanuel Macron’s rise to power, the stakes for this first round were all the more significant given the desire for revenge at the polls among the two major parties that had been eliminated, as well as among La France Insoumise (FI) and the FN, which sought to secure as many elected officials as possible. But with voting intentions showing LREM as the clear winner, the “hangover” among voters and activists, and, to a lesser extent, “electoral fatigue” (this is the sixth election in three years) seem to have fueled voter apathy.
Beyond these short-term factors, there is also what some call“sociological abstention.” Young people, those with fewer credentials, and the working class are often the most likely to stay away from the polls. Voting at the wrong polling place —that is, voting at a location corresponding to a former address or another residence (such as a parent’s home or a secondary residence)—makes the act of voting more “cumbersome,” if not impossible (see the error in the voter rolls).
Subject to fluctuations, even if the general trend is upward, the abstention rate is often analyzed as an indicator of the state of democracy. Widely discussed at the time of the announcement of results, it then fades into obscurity until it, in turn, becomes a new benchmark for voter turnout. However, in the case of this first round of the legislative elections, this record-high abstention rate has significant repercussions for the rest of the democratic process.
A limited choice due to voter abstention in thesecond round
Elected by a small minority of voters, the legitimacy of the future National Assembly is already the subject of widespread criticism, compounded by its almost monochromatic makeup according to projections and the large number of newcomers entering the Palais Bourbon.
However, even now, between thefirst andsecond rounds, this high percentage of abstentions has already had an impact, given the voting system in place for the legislative elections. For the first time, the exception has largely become the rule.
To qualify for the second round, candidates must receive at least 12.5% of registered voters. Along with departmental elections (formerly cantonal), these are the only elections based on registered voters rather than votes cast. When the score is calculated based on registered voters, it takes into account all voters actually called upon to vote; conversely, when it is calculated based on votes cast, abstentions (as well as blank votes) are excluded from the equation. In this sense, elections based on registered voters would therefore be more representative than those based on votes cast. They are also, in fact, more challenging for candidates in that, depending on the abstention rate, the score required to reach the 12.5% threshold of registered voters is high.
For example, in Moselle, Mathilde Huchot obtained 12.52% of registered voters, equivalent to 27.3% of votes cast once 52.8% of abstentions and 1.3% of blank and invalid votes were excluded. Under these conditions, the number of candidates qualifying for the second round may be limited. To ensure that at least two candidates advance to the second round—thereby guaranteeing political pluralism and giving voters a choice—a contingency measure has been put in place: the “re-qualification” process. Thus, if only one candidate qualifies, the candidate who finishes in second place is automatically guaranteed a spot in the next round.
The particularly high abstention rate inthe first round amplified this scenario: in 68% of districts, only one candidate crossed the 12.5% threshold, and the other was carried over. In 14% of districts, both candidates had to be carried over. In the end, both candidates qualified normally in only 18% of the districts. In this first round, the exception—the runoff—thus became the rule.
While LREM candidates most often secured a spot in the second round, other political parties benefited significantly from this mechanism: nearly two-thirds of LR or UDI candidates were thus saved, as were 80% of Socialist candidates, 88.3% of FN candidates, and 97% of FI candidates. Although not explicitly explained to voters, this pathway to the second round favors the most popular candidates—that is, those who garner both support votes and protest votes, as is the case with the FN.
Although seemingly outside the political arena, this large number of abstainers, combined with a high qualification threshold and a large number of candidates, has a significant impact on the rest of the election. In the short term, on the selection of candidates; in the long term, because the credibility of the election is at stake.
Restoring meaning and significance to the ballot
To curb voter apathy, several approaches could be considered. While current discussions focus on changing the electoral system by introducing a “proportional representation”...it would seem, however, that it would be more useful to give voters greater power by restoring meaning to the act of voting and, above all, giving their ballots more weight.
One possible approach to combating voter abstention might be to consider what tools to provide citizens so they can make informed choices and reclaim ownership of the electoral process. Understanding not only why we vote but also the context in which we do so—by explaining the roles and functions of the various legislative bodies and outlining what would happen if there were no majority or, conversely, if a majority were too dominant—would help clarify the debate. Understanding the ins and outs of an election helps spark interest and, consequently, mobilize voters.
But voting is also an inclusive act. To emphasize a sense of belonging to the civic “community,” various measures could be implemented. For young people, for example, rather than relying on an automatic, impersonal registration process, registration could take place as part of a Citizenship Day held in high schools. As part of a course on the history of suffrage, this republican ceremony could serve as a way to mark their entry into active citizenship with a sense of solemnity. Similarly, some polling stations could be relocated to the heart of large housing projects to promote the integration of working-class communities. New, more targeted republican rituals could thus be devised to enable all citizens to fully enjoy their rights.
This first aspect must necessarily be complemented by a second: making voting a decisive act that has a real impact. If both candidates fail to meet the threshold, the election should be annulled; if the vote falls below a certain threshold (e.g., 10% of registered voters), the candidates should be eliminated; the A blank vote should be counted as a valid vote.
Rather than changing the voting system, it is the electoral calendar that needs to be adjusted. Not by holding the presidential and legislative elections on the same day, nor by holding the latter before the presidential elections, but simply by abolishing the five-year presidential term. Since the presidential term was reduced to five years, the legislative elections have been overshadowed by the presidential elections, and the electoral cycle has become far too intense and almost constant.
If the The voter registration process has just been revised To reduce voter abstention, it is urgent to take further action and adopt both institutional and practical measures. Because this Sunday, the record of 51.3% could very well be broken again.
Aurélia Troupel, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Montpellier
The original version This article was published on The Conversation.