Record abstention rates: when choice is no longer an option

Political protest can take many forms, and brings together a variety of messages. Abstention - with its detour from politics - is the most visible. On Sunday June 11, with more than one in two voters failing to take part in the election of their Member of Parliament, abstention reached a new peak.
Aurélia Troupel, University of Montpellier

With 51.3% of voters abstaining from voting in the first round, it was indeed much higher than in the presidential election, but it is in line with the trend of the previous year. on the heights already reached in 2015 in the regional elections (1^er round) and the départementales and remains much lower than for the last European elections (57.6%).
This ebb and flow of abstention, depending on the election, can be explained by the many factors involved.

A wide range of factors

The importance attached by voters to the ballot, and the intensity and quality of the campaign, are the first factors that can explain this variation. Presidential elections are more mobilizing than legislative ones.
Although the campaign was partly overshadowed by the first steps following Emmanuel Macron's arrival in power, the stakes for this first round were all the higher as there was this idea of revenge to be taken at the ballot box for the two major parties that were eliminated as well as for La France insoumise (FI) or the FN, which were seeking to obtain as many elected representatives as possible. But with voting intentions showing LREM winning by a wide margin, the "hangover" of voters and activists and, to a lesser extent, "electoral wear and tear" (this was the sixth election in three years) seem to have fuelled electoral demobilization.
Beyond these cyclical effects, there is also what some callsociological abstention. Young people, the least educated and the working classes are often the most likely not to go to the polling booth. Incorrect registration, i.e. not voting in one's own polling station but in the one corresponding to one's former address or another residence (parental, secondary), makes the electoral act more "costly", if not impossible (cf. the electoral roll bug).
Subject to variations, even if the general trend is upwards, the abstention rate is often analyzed as a marker of the state of democracy. Particularly commented on when the results are announced, it then sinks into oblivion until it becomes, in turn, a new benchmark for electoral participation. However, in the case of this first round of legislative elections, this record abstention has important repercussions for the rest of the democratic process.

A choice restricted by abstention for the^2nd round

Chosen by a small minority of voters, the legitimacy of the future Assembly is - in advance - the subject of much criticism, compounded by its almost monochrome hue according to projections and the large number of novices entering the Palais Bourbon.
But even now, between the^1st and^2nd rounds, the high percentage of abstentionists has already had an impact, given the voting system in force for the legislative elections. For the first time, the exception has largely become the rule.
To qualify for the second round, candidates must obtain at least 12.5% of registered voters. Along with the departmental (ex-cantonal) elections, these are the only elections to be based on registered voters rather than votes cast. When the score is calculated on the basis of registered voters, it takes into account all those actually called to vote; conversely, when it is calculated on the basis of votes cast, abstainers (like blank votes) are taken out of the equation. In this sense, elections based on registered voters are more representative than those based on votes cast. They are also, de facto, more difficult for candidates insofar as, depending on abstentions, the score required to reach the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters is high.
In Moselle, for example, Mathilde Huchot obtained 12.52% of registered voters, equivalent to 27.3% of votes cast once 52.8% of abstainers and the 1.3% of blank and invalid votes have been removed. Under these conditions, the number of qualified candidates for the second round may be limited. In order to ensure the presence of at least two candidates in the second round, to guarantee political pluralism and give voters a choice, a back-up system has been put in place: the "repêchage". If there is only one qualified candidate, the one who comes second is automatically guaranteed a place in the next round.
The particularly high rate of abstention in the^1st round multiplied this configuration: in 68% of constituencies, only one candidate passed the 12.5% threshold, and the other was elected. In 14% of constituencies, both candidates had to be re-picked. In the end, qualification for both candidates was only achieved in 18% of constituencies. In this first round, the exception - the repechage - became the rule.
While LREM candidates were the most likely to qualify for the second round, the other political groupings benefited greatly from this system: almost two-thirds of LR and UDI candidates, 80% of Socialist candidates, 88.3% of FN candidates and 97% of FI candidates. Although it is not made explicit to voters, this route to the second round favors the most popular candidates, i.e., those who attract both a support vote and a protest vote, as in the case of the FN.
Although a priori outside the political game, this large number of abstainers, combined with a high qualification threshold and a large number of competitors, has a significant impact on the outcome of the election. In the short term, on the selection of candidates; in the long term, because the credibility of the ballot depends on it.

Giving meaning and weight back to the ballot paper

To curb abstention, several avenues could be explored. While current debates focus on changing the voting system, with the introduction of a "proportional "doseHowever, it would seem more useful to give voters more power by giving meaning to the electoral act and, above all, weight to their ballot.
Thinking about the tools to be given to citizens to help them find their way around when it comes to making a choice, so that they can reappropriate elections, could be a first avenue to explore in the fight against abstention. Knowing why people vote, but also in what context, by clarifying the role and functions of the various assemblies, and presenting what would happen if there were no majority or, on the contrary, an overly hegemonic majority, would help clarify the debate. Understanding and knowing the ins and outs of a ballot helps to arouse interest and mobilize voters.
But voting is also an inclusive act. To emphasize the importance of belonging to the civic "community", a number of different schemes could be devised. For young people, for example, rather than automatic, disembodied registration, it could take place within the framework of a "community". citizenship day organized in high schools. Backed by a course on the history of the right to vote, this republican moment could be a way of giving solemnity to their entry into active citizenship. Similarly, a few polling stations could be relocated to the heart of large cities, to encourage the integration of working-class groups. New, more targeted republican rituals could thus be devised to help all citizens fully enjoy their rights.
To this first dimension must necessarily be added the second: (re)making voting a decisive act, with an impact. When both candidates have been eliminated, the election should be annulled; below a certain threshold (e.g. 10% of registered voters), the candidates should be eliminated. blank vote should be considered as a vote cast.
Rather than changing the voting system, it's the electoral calendar that should be corrected. Not by putting the presidential and legislative elections on the same day, nor the latter before the presidential elections, but simply by abolishing the five-year term. Since the presidential term was reduced to five years, the legislative elections have been eclipsed by the presidential ones, and the electoral sequences are far too intense and almost permanent.
If the electoral registration procedure has just been revised to reduce abstention, it is urgent to go further and adopt both institutional and more practical approaches. Because this Sunday, the record of 51.3% could well be broken again.
Aurélia TroupelSenior lecturer in Political Science, University of Montpellier
Visit original version of this article was published on The Conversation.