[LUM#13] “If we don’t change, it will happen again”

[LUM Magazine] - Published on January 7, 2021 in Science and Society

“Completely predictable.” That is how Serge Morand* describes the COVID-19 pandemic. And that’s good news: it means we know how to limit the risk of future epidemics . Explanations from the ecologist and evolutionary biologist at theInstitute of Evolutionary Sciences in Montpellier.

You mention a direct link between declining biodiversity and the rise in epidemics. How would you explain this?
We often view the decline in biodiversity as an ecological crisis, but in reality, it is also a health crisis. Indeed, when biodiversity is high, there is a wide variety of potential pathogens, such as viruses, but they circulate quietly; this means they are transmitted with limited efficiency and are unlikely to eventually infect humans. Conversely, when biodiversity declines, it facilitates contact between wildlife viruses and humans, thereby increasing the risk of disease transmission.

How do these interactions occur?
The decline in biodiversity is attributable to human activities: urbanization, resource extraction, and especially industrial agriculture and livestock farming are responsible for deforestation and the destruction of natural habitats. Predators may disappear, which disrupts the entire balance of ecosystems and can facilitate the emergence of pathogens. But above all, these activities bring together species that would never have crossed paths in nature: wild animals and domestic or farm animals. We are thus creating new interfaces conducive to the spread of viruses. A prime example is the Nipah virus, which struck Malaysia in 1998. It emerged when bats, driven from their habitat by palm oil cultivation, began coming into contact with pig farms; once infected, the pigs were consumed by humans. As for the coronavirus, we are now certain that it too originated in a bat, but the so-called “intermediate” host—the one that allowed the virus to acquire the genetic determinants necessary to infect humans—is not yet known.

Are there more and more new epidemics?
Yes, globally, the number of epidemics has increased more than tenfold between 1940 and today. Not only are there more of them, but above all, they are becoming global in scope and no longer remain confined to the country where they first emerged. Since the 1960s, we have seen a significant acceleration. The cause: increased trade. In fifty years, air traffic has increased by 1,300%!

At the same time, tourism skyrocketed, up 5,600%. COVID-19 is a disease spread through international travel. This pandemic was entirely predictable; all the conditions were in place for an emerging infectious disease of this kind to spread rapidly across the globe.

If we could have predicted this pandemic, how can we protect ourselves from the next ones?
It is our entire approach to ecosystems that needs to change, starting with our global food system. Intensive livestock farming is a prime example: the total weight of cattle on the planet exceeds the total weight of humans! To feed all these animals, vast regions are deforested to produce soy or corn, which destroys natural habitats and encourages intensive monocultures. Yet we must move away from these single-purpose landscapes toward non-specialized mosaic environments. We must recreate multifunctional territories. We must move toward a more localized agroecology and agronomy, which also implies restoring autonomy to these territories. To achieve this, the entire Common Agricultural Policy must be overhauled; we should start by renegotiating agricultural debt to make the transition toward agroecology.

So, does that mean we need to radically transform our food system?
Yes, but not only that. There are truly significant changes that need to be made: we need to deglobalize our economies, reduce mobility, and bring economic activities back to local communities. We need to move toward less tourism and more sustainable tourism; we need to consume locally. The coronavirus crisis has sparked a real awareness of the need for change; this is a truly pivotal moment for all stakeholders in agronomy, forest ecology, agroecology, and the local and circular economy. It’s a real challenge for the next generation of students, and we must give them the freedom to tackle it and trust them to do so. Everyone stands to gain from these changes: biodiversity, the climate, farmers, but also our health and well-being. In any case, we have no choice but to make this shift: if we don’t change, it will happen again—inevitably.

*Isem (UM – CNRS – IRD – EPHE)

Keywords: Agriculture, COVID-19, Environment, LUM#13, LUM Magazine, Health, Science, Company