[LUM#15] The breeding ground for conflict

[LUM Magazine] - Published on February 24, 2022 in Science-Society

Economist Raphaël Soubeyran offers another perspective on the violence sweeping across the African continent, having studied unequal access to fertile land as a factor in conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa.

Wars of independence, power or borders, identity or secessionist conflicts, sub-state or local fighting... The typology of violence is vast when it comes to exploring the multiplicity of conflicts scattered across the globe, including the African continent, the scene of numerous events. Through what lens should we observe them? While ethnic tensions and differences in wealth between countries are often highlighted, they do not explain everything... "Conflicts always arise from multiple and complex causes," says Raphaël Soubeyran.

Together with his colleagues Nicolas Berman and Mathieu Couttenier, the economist examined a cause that is still underestimated: inequalities in access to fertile land, an unexpected breeding ground for violence. "We studied the impact of agricultural soil productivity on conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa over a period from 1997 to 2013," explains the director of the Montpellier Center for Environmental Economics ( CEE-M)*. This factor is all the more important in this region of the world, where 62% of the population lived in rural areas in 2015. Their groundbreaking analysis suggests that the greater the differences in soil fertility, the greater the risk of local violence.

Focus on fertilizers

How did economists analyze this complex link? "Studying how differences in soil fertility affect conflicts is not easy," says Raphaël Soubeyran, pointing to the scarcity of data, but also to the fact that "soil quality can be correlated with other local characteristics that are also sources of conflict." The authors therefore chose an indirect method: "We combined information on natural soil fertility and locally produced agricultural goods with data on global price variations for fertilizer components."

Why fertilizers? Because these products have different effects depending on the natural fertility of the soil. "When fertilizers are more expensive, the difference in yield between naturally fertile land and less fertile land will be greater, " the economist points out. And these differences in yield are themselves a source of potential conflict. "Variations in global fertilizer prices can therefore be used to study the impact of increased soil fertility inequalities on local conflicts."

Game theory

Conflict analysis is no easy task and is the subject of much research in economics. To carry out their study, the researchers used a model based on what is known as game theory, which studies situations in which individuals make decisions. "In our study, individuals have a choice between two options: working their land to earn an agricultural income or entering into conflict with their neighbor in an attempt to take over their land," explains the director of the CEE-M. "If they opt for the second choice, they run the risk of losing their own agricultural production, which will have been neglected in favor of the conflictual activity."

This is where differences in fertility come into play: when one's own income from agriculture falls much more than a neighbor's income, working one's own land becomes less profitable. "So getting into a conflict with a neighbor to get your hands on their produce—grown on more fertile land—becomes a choice that can be described as profitable, " explains Raphaël Soubeyran.

Agrarian reforms

And the more heterogeneous the soil quality, the greater the effect will be, particularly in highly agricultural regions. "Our estimates suggest that in regions with highly disparate soil quality, when fertilizer prices rise, the probability of conflict increases by 9.6%, compared to 5.9% for less heterogeneous land." Inequality in access to fertile land is therefore a significant factor in conflicts.

It can therefore serve as a lever to guard against future tensions, which are bound to increase in a context where global warming and growing drought will inevitably affect soil fertility. "These new data should be taken into account in agrarian reforms to redistribute land to those who cultivate it. Redistribution policy should take soil fertility into account when dividing up land, " recommends Raphaël Soubeyran. So that these lands no longer give rise to conflict.

*Center for Environmental Economics – Montpellier – CEE-M (UM – CNRS – INRAE – Institut Agro)

Keywords: Agriculture, Economy, LUM#15, LumLu, LUM Magazine, Company