[LUM#15] The Groundwork for Conflict
Economist Raphaël Soubeyran offers a fresh perspective on the violence sweeping across the African continent, having studied unequal access to fertile land as a factor in conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa.
Wars of independence, power, or borders; identity-based or secessionist conflicts; sub-state or local battles… The range of violence is vast when it comes to exploring the multitude of conflicts scattered across the globe, including the African continent, the scene of numerous events. Through what lens should we view them? While ethnic tensions or disparities in wealth between countries are often highlighted, they do not explain everything… “Conflicts, in fact, always stem from multiple and complex causes, ” explains Raphaël Soubeyran.
Together with his colleagues Nicolas Berman and Mathieu Couttenier, the economist examined a factor that is still underestimated: unequal access to fertile land, an unexpected breeding ground for violence. “We studied the impact of agricultural soil productivity on conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa over the period from 1997 to 2013,” explains the director of the Montpellier Center for Environmental Economics ( CEE-M)*. This factor is all the more significant in this region of the world, where 62% of the population lived in rural areas in 2015. Their groundbreaking analysis suggests that the greater the differences in soil fertility, the higher the risk of local violence.
Focus on Fertilizers
How did the economists go about analyzing this complex relationship? “Studying how differences in soil fertility affect conflicts is no easy task,” says Raphaël Soubeyran, pointing to the scarcity of data, but also to the fact that “soil quality may be correlated with other local characteristics that are also sources of conflict.” The authors therefore chose an indirect method: “We combined information on natural soil fertility and locally produced agricultural goods with data on global price fluctuations for fertilizer components.”
Why fertilizers? Because these products have different effects depending on the natural fertility of the soil. “When fertilizers are more expensive, the difference in yield between naturally fertile land and less fertile land will be greater, ” the economist points out. And these differences in yield are themselves a source of potential conflict. “Fluctuations in global fertilizer prices can therefore be used to study the impact of increasing soil fertility inequalities on local conflicts.”
Game theory
Conflict analysis is no small task and has been the subject of extensive research in economics. To carry out their study, the researchers used a model based on what is known as game theory, which examines situations in which individuals make decisions. “In our study, individuals have a choice between two options: working their land to generate agricultural income or entering into conflict with their neighbor to try to take over their land,” explains the director of CEE-M. “If they opt for the second choice, they risk losing their own agricultural production, which will have been neglected in favor of the conflict.”
This is where differences in soil fertility come into play: when a farmer’s own income from agriculture falls much more sharply than a neighbor’s, working one’s own land becomes less profitable. “So getting into a conflict with a neighbor to get hold of their produce—grown on more fertile land—becomes a choice that can be described as profitable, ” explains Raphaël Soubeyran.
Agrarian reforms
And the more variable the soil quality, the greater the effect will be, particularly in heavily agricultural regions. “Our estimates suggest that, in regions with highly variable soil quality, when fertilizer prices rise, the probability of conflict increases by 9.6%, compared to 5.9% for less heterogeneous lands.” Inequality in access to fertile land is thus a significant factor in conflicts.
It can therefore serve as a means of safeguarding against future tensions, which are bound to increase in a context where global warming and growing drought will inevitably affect soil fertility. “These new data should be taken into account during agrarian reforms to redistribute land to those who cultivate it. Redistribution policies should take soil fertility into account at the time of distribution, ” recommends Raphaël Soubeyran. So that these lands no longer give rise to conflict.
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*Center for Environmental Economics – Montpellier – CEE-M (University of Montpellier – CNRS – INRAE – Institut Agro)