[LUM#21] Deforestation “Part of the solution lies in international trade”
6.6 billion hectares of forest were lost in 2022, 4% more than in 2021, according to a report published by some twenty environmental organizations and research institutes just days before COP 28 in Dubai. Alain Karsenty, an economist at the Sens laboratory, sheds light on this geopolitics of wood.
First of all, what is the international definition of a forest?
There are lots of them! The European regulation on deforestation, adopted in May 2023 and due to come into force at the end of 2024, uses the definition of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), namely 10% forest cover on a minimum area of 0.5 hectares. Oil palm plantations, fruit tree plantations, and agroforestry areas are not considered forests.
Which countries are most affected by deforestation?
Brazil has long held the record for deforestation, although it has been declining since Lula's return. Next come the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bolivia, which has experienced a huge boom in agribusiness, and Indonesia, where deforestation has fallen significantly over the last four to five years. There is also the issue of mega-fires, which are affecting Australia, Canada, Russia, and more recently Brazil, Indonesia, and Bolivia on an unprecedented scale (read: Cold forests are burning!).
What are the main drivers of deforestation in South America?
Extensive cattle farming and soybean cultivation. The latter has been declining since 2008 following the moratorium on Amazonian soybean purchases decided by major international agri-food companies. Since then, production has shifted southward to the Cerrado, a vast region of savannas rich in biodiversity, which is being converted on a large scale to soybean monocultures.
Is deforestation a more recent phenomenon in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
The sharp increase in deforestation began about ten years ago in the DRC, which is losing half a million hectares of primary forest every year. Agricultural practices are extensive: farmers cultivate land for three or four years, and when its fertility declines and the field becomes overgrown with weeds, they leave it fallow and cut down a new forest. This system has worked for millennia with a small and stable population. But with a population growth rate of 3%, the population doubles every 25 years in the DRC, and fallow periods are becoming shorter and shorter, leaving no time for secondary forest to establish itself. There is also a land issue: in Africa, as in the Amazon, the development of land for cultivation legitimizes a claim to ownership.
Soybeans are exported to China and Europe to feed livestock, which raises questions about our economic models. In Africa, 80 to 90% of deforestation is due to small-scale subsistence farming: cassava, corn, rice, beans, bananas, etc. Palm oil produced in Africa supplies local markets. It is consumed domestically, except for cocoa in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Liberia, and Cameroon, which is exported to Europe, and coffee, which is mainly produced in East Africa.
And what is the situation in Asia?
Deforestation is declining significantly because there are no more forests left, or because the last remaining forests are in mountainous areas where it is not profitable to plant oil palms or rubber trees. Over the past decade, palm trees have been overtaken as the primary driver of deforestation by trees planted for paper pulp, which is exported all over the world. Fast-growing tree plantations such as acacia and eucalyptus are considered forests according to the FAO definition. They therefore do not appear in "net" deforestation data. However, these plantations, which are destined for clear-cutting, are replacing degraded natural forests, which could regenerate and offer great biodiversity (read: Recent changes in forestry and land use policies in Sabah, Borneo, Malaysia: are they truly transformational?, Alain Karsenty, October 2022).
Charcoal used for cooking is widespread throughout the region...
Yes, it is the main source of energy for cooking in many areas. Today, there is talk of sustainable charcoal from eucalyptus or acacia plantations so that people don't cut down natural forests, but with the health problems associated with charcoal, wouldn't the real solution be to stop using it, at least in urban areas? The alternatives are bioethanol, liquefied natural gas, which is still a fossil fuel, or hydroelectric power—I'm thinking of the famous Inga 3 dam in the DRC, which could supply part of Africa with power...
We haven't mentioned Russia yet...
...which is heavily deforesting to supply China with wood. The forests of the DRC are home to thousands of species, but only a few are commercially exploited. So, about one to three trees per hectare are harvested. In Russia, the forests are less diverse, with two or three species that are all marketable, which leads to clear-cutting. There is also a lot of urban sprawl and mega-fires.
And where does France stand in this geopolitics of wood?
We import a lot of softwood because our industrial apparatus is unsuited to our hardwood forests (read: We will no longer go to the woods), which are therefore under-exploited and highly fragmented. We don't have the money to invest in industrial equipment, so one of the solutions has been for private owners to plant the famous Douglas fir everywhere. This has met with strong opposition from society because of monoculture, clear-cutting, fire risks, landscape transformation, etc.
Today, what proportion of deforestation is linked to exports?
Estimates suggest 20 to 25%, so part of the solution lies in international trade and imported deforestation. The question is how to tackle the causes, how to reform land ownership, agriculture, and energy. How can we influence demographics? (Read: European regulation of imported deforestation: the limits of an undifferentiated approach, Alain Karsenty, 2023).
Which country is the largest importer of timber?
China, by a wide margin (read: Chinese forestry companies in West Africa, Alain Karsenty, October 2022). It imports timber from Asia, Africa, New Zealand, Russia, Germany, and France, and often re-exports it to Europe in the form of processed products. And then there is China's population of 1.4 billion, which means that domestic demand is enormous. The Vietnamese and Indians have also become major buyers on the international market.
So China will play a major role in the future of forests worldwide?
Yes, and they are aware that a global wood shortage is looming, so they are beginning to take a serious interest in the sustainability of the resource. For them, it's a way of securing their supply, and that's good news for forests because they are the ones calling the shots.
Read the rest of this interview, "The term 'carbon offset' is scientifically absurd,"on the University of Montpellier website.
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