[LUM#21] Deforestation: “Part of the solution lies in international trade”
6.6 billion hectares of forest were lost in 2022, 4% more than in 2021, according to a report published by some twenty environmental organizations and research institutes, just a few days before COP 28 in Dubai. Alain Karsenty, an economist at the Sens laboratory, sheds light on the geopolitics of timber.
To begin with, what is the international definition of a forest?
There are plenty of them! The European regulation on deforestation, adopted in May 2023 and set to take effect at the end of 2024, adopts the definition provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), namely 10% forest cover over a minimum area of 0.5 hectares. Oil palm plantations, fruit tree plantations, and agroforestry areas are not considered forests.
Which countries are most affected by deforestation?
Brazil has long held the record for deforestation, although rates have been declining since Lula’s return. Next are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bolivia—which has experienced a massive boom in agribusiness—and Indonesia, where deforestation has dropped significantly over the past 4–5 years. There is also the issue of megafires, which are affecting Australia, Canada, and Russia on an unprecedented scale, as well as Brazil, Indonesia, and Bolivia recently (read: Cold-climate forests are burning!).
In South America, what are the main drivers of deforestation?
Extensive cattle ranching and soybean cultivation. Soybean cultivation has been declining since 2008 following the moratorium on soybean purchases from the Amazon imposed by major international agribusiness companies. Since then, production has shifted southward to the Cerrado, a vast region of savannas rich in biodiversity, which is being converted on a large scale into soybean monocultures.
Is deforestation a more recent phenomenon in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?
The sharp increase in deforestation began about ten years ago in the DRC, which loses half a million hectares of primary forest each year. Farming practices are extensive; farmers cultivate a plot of land for three or four years, and when its fertility declines and the field becomes overrun with weeds, they leave it fallow and clear a new area of forest. This system worked for millennia with a small, stable population. But with a 3% population growth rate, the population doubles every 25 years in the DRC; fallow periods are becoming shorter and shorter, leaving no time for a secondary forest to establish itself. There is also a land tenure issue: in Africa, as in the Amazon, the cultivation of land legitimizes a claim to ownership.
Is this production intended for export?
Brazil largely offsets its deforestation through beef produced from livestock farming. Soybeans, on the other hand, are shipped to China and Europe to feed livestock, which raises questions about our economic models. In Africa, 80 to 90% of deforestation is due to small-scale subsistence farming: cassava, corn, rice, beans, bananas… Palm oil produced in Africa supplies local markets. It is for domestic consumption, except for cocoa in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Liberia, and Cameroon, which is exported to Europe, and coffee, which is produced mainly in East Africa.
And what is the situation in Asia?
Deforestation is declining significantly because there are no more forests left, or because the remaining ones are in mountainous areas where it is not profitable to plant oil palms or rubber trees. Over the past decade, oil palms have, in fact, been surpassed as the primary driver of deforestation by trees planted for pulp, which is exported all over the world. Plantations of fast-growing trees such as acacias or eucalyptus are considered, according to the FAO’s definition, to be forests. They therefore do not appear in “net” deforestation data. Yet these plantations, destined for clear-cutting, are replacing degraded natural forests, which could regenerate and provide significant biodiversity (read: Recent Changes in Forestry and Land-Use Policies in Sabah, Borneo, Malaysia: Are They Truly Transformational?, Alain Karsenty, October 2022).
Charcoal used for cooking is a common feature almost everywhere…
Yes, it’s the primary source of cooking energy in many regions. Today, there’s talk of sustainable charcoal from eucalyptus or acacia plantations so people don’t cut down natural forests, but given the health risks associated with charcoal, wouldn’t the real solution be to stop using it, at least in urban areas? With alternatives such as bioethanol, liquefied natural gas—which is, however, a fossil fuel—or hydroelectric power—I’m thinking of the famous Inga 3 dam in the DRC, which could power part of Africa…
We haven’t mentioned Russia yet…
… which is deforestation on a massive scale to supply China with timber. The forests of the DRC are home to thousands of species, but only a few are harvested for commercial purposes. So, about one to three trees per hectare are harvested. In Russia, the forests are less diverse; there are two or three species, all of which are marketable, leading to clear-cutting. There is also a lot of urban sprawl and mega-fires.
And where does France stand in this geopolitics of timber?
We import a lot of softwood because our industrial infrastructure is ill-suited to our hardwood forests (read: We won’t be going to the woods anymore), which are therefore underutilized and highly fragmented. We don’t have the money to invest in industrial infrastructure, so one solution for private landowners has been to plant the famous Douglas fir just about everywhere. This has faced strong societal opposition, due to monoculture, clear-cutting, fire risks, and landscape transformation…
What percentage of deforestation is currently linked to exports?
Estimates put the figure at 20 to 25 percent, so part of the solution clearly lies in international trade and imported deforestation. The question is how to tackle these causes: how do we reform land tenure, agriculture, and energy? How do we address population dynamics? (Read: European Regulation of Imported Deforestation: The Limits of an Undifferentiated Approach, Alain Karsenty, 2023).
Which country is the largest importer of timber?
China, by a wide margin (read: Chinese Forestry Companies in West Africa, Alain Karsenty, October 2022). It imports timber from Asia, Africa, New Zealand, Russia, Germany, and France, and often re-exports it to Europe in the form of processed products. And then there’s China’s population of 1.4 billion—its domestic demand is enormous. The Vietnamese and Indians have also become major buyers on the international market.
So will China play a major role in the future of the world’s forests?
Yes, and they are aware that a global timber shortage is looming, so they are beginning to take a serious interest in the sustainability of the resource. For them, it’s a way to secure their supply, and it’s good news for the forests because they hold the cards.
Read the rest of this interview,“The term ‘carbon offsetting’ is scientifically absurd,”on the University of Montpellier website.
UM podcasts are now available on your favorite platform (Spotify, Deezer, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, etc.).